Intelligence Phase

Where this fits

The team is formed, the goals are set, and the kickoff is done. Now comes the research. The Intelligence Phase collects, organizes, and prepares the information the team needs to understand the system and start building solutions. This phase feeds directly into the Solution Phase, where the SiD method is cycled in iterations.

What this phase does

The Intelligence Phase determines what data to acquire, sources it, and prepares it for effective system mapping. It also identifies stakeholders and, in some cases, begins aligning them for the next phase.

The analysis itself is partly done here and partly in the Solution Phase as part of iterative method cycling. Think of this phase as building the knowledge base that makes the co-creation sessions as productive as possible.

Typical steps:

• Data collection
• Market analysis
• Trend analysis
• Precedent analysis
• Stakeholder analysis
• Systems analysis

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3.3.1 Data Collection

Every project needs data. In this step, the team identifies what data it needs, creates an organizational structure for it, divides collection tasks among members, and brings it all together.

Data can include maps, statistical information, climatic data, demographics, economic data, prior research reports, and more. To figure out what you need, run an ELSI sweep (Energy, Land use, Materials, Ecosystems, Species, Culture, Economy, Health and Happiness) across the project scope. This helps identify what data might be available and sets up a documentation structure that keeps things organized as the volume grows.

Start early. Data acquisition often depends on delivery from outside institutions, and that takes time. Once collected, process everything into a single reference document or database so all team members have easy access.

Three dimensions of data

Location data (space). Climatic data, cultural information, soil conditions, biodiversity levels, resource availability. This feeds directly into spatial system maps.

Time data. What has been planned for the organization, topic, or location? Are there vision documents or strategic outlooks? What historical data exists? Use tools like backcasting and scenario planning to estimate what data the process will need. For organizations, read annual reports and extrapolate development curves. Review relevant government policies, current events, and potential legislation.

Relational data (context). What is the decision-making structure? Where does the subject sit in the supply chain or life cycle? Which stakeholders are involved? What third parties are affected? What geopolitical circumstances might influence the topic?

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3.3.2 Market Analysis

Depending on the challenge, market analysis may be a brief scan or a deep investigation. The goal is to understand the market from an integrated perspective.

Areas to cover: the existing market landscape, competition, market regulations, voluntary sustainability standards, material supply chains, and value chains.

ELSI-driven market analysis

As with data collection, depart from an ELSI inventory to index what market forces are present in each category. This surfaces aspects like employment and labor markets, natural capital, resource pricing and availability that a conventional analysis might miss.

Life cycle, supply chain, and value chain

In virtually all projects, it is useful to map the challenge subject within its connected primary chains:

• Life cycle: from primary resources to end of life
• Supply chain: from source to end user
• Value chain: business models and value flows surrounding the subject

If these maps produce graphic material showing the current state of the market system, they become powerful tools during SiD sessions. Treat them as "before" maps. Then explore what an ideal "after" looks like. This drives the development of systemic solutions that connect to existing cycles and chains.

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3.3.3 Trend Analysis

Trend analysis scans for long-term societal dynamics that influence the project. It brings awareness of system dynamics beyond the project boundary and helps align the work to global, regional, and local patterns.

A trend analysis does not predict the future. It identifies shifts in patterns that diverge from normal conditions. Based on these, the team can test solutions for resilience.

Scale sensitivity

Trends are sensitive to geographical and temporal scale. A local pattern may be the opposite of the global one. A short-term trend may reverse on a longer timeline. Both ends of the spectrum are valuable. Short-term, local trends align the start of the roadmap. Long-term, global trends align the goals and strategies.

Global and large-scale trends can draw on public research from institutions like the World Economic Forum, the United Nations, and Amnesty International. Many consultancies also publish periodic trend analyses. Scrutinize these reports: their content, direction, and scope. They usually do not cover the full spectrum. Combine international reports to build a more solid picture.

Local and short-term trends are best extracted from local stakeholders, surveys, and data analysis. In these cases, trend analysis and stakeholder involvement become co-dependent.

Using ELSI to check for blind spots

Consider the World Economic Forum's top ten global trends from 2015: deepening inequality, persistent jobless growth, lack of leadership, rising competition, weakening democracy, rising pollution, extreme weather, intensifying nationalism, water stress, and health in the economy.

From an integrated SiD perspective, this list is biased. It focuses on policy, economics, and markets. The most severe trespassing of planetary boundaries, the decline of biodiversity, is entirely absent. Using ELSI to cross-check any trend list reveals these gaps. Ecosystems and species were missing from the WEC top ten entirely.

The recommendation: find multiple sources, combine their lists, and create a new selection based on ELSI coverage and the weight of each trend.

Example: Schiphol Airport trends

Except developed a trend analysis for Amsterdam Schiphol Airport, derived from an ELSI sweep. The resulting categories included: decentralization and IoT, transport shifts (self-driving vehicles, shifting movement patterns), circular economy (local production, industrial symbiosis, shortening supply chains), bio-based economy (biodiversity loss, urban agriculture, protein sourcing), sharing economy, population and urbanization dynamics, health and happiness focus (healing environments, air quality, care robotics), flexitization (flexible buildings, off-site production, flex spaces), and climate adaptation (renewable energy, water management).

This broader scan, anchored in ELSI, captured dynamics that a purely economic analysis would have missed.

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3.3.4 Precedent Analysis

The purpose of precedent research is twofold: prevent reinventing the wheel, and get inspired by great examples.

All members of the core team search for existing research, solutions related to the challenge, and inspiration. Results are recorded and organized, typically in an inspiration book.

At Except, precedent research is a required phase in every project. History is the best teacher and laboratory. The resulting inspiration books inform new team members and stakeholders throughout the process.

Organizing the search

Remember that solutions may not live where you expect them. A breakthrough for your challenge might come from an entirely different field. Do not narrow the scope too much. A methodical search over a broad spectrum captures developments that a targeted search would miss.

For large projects, break the challenge into meaningful sub-categories using ELSI, divided across space, time, and context. Assign team members to an ELSI category. They can remain "keepers" of that category throughout the project. This also gives members unfamiliar with SiD a first chance to work with ELSI's categorization.

Define the recording format

Define a strict recording format before the search begins. This allows team members to work independently while ensuring everyone captures the same kind of information. For organizations that repeatedly execute SiD processes, a standard format and a growing precedent database are worthwhile investments.

A practical approach: create a shared online spreadsheet divided horizontally by ELSI categories. For each precedent, capture name, author or developer, date, a short description, the source, and images.

Executing and processing

Team members research their fields, coming together periodically to discuss findings and adjust the structure or format as needed. After the search, all precedents are compiled into a precedent book for distribution to the extended team and stored for future projects. Summary posters for use in SiD sessions are often produced alongside the book.

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3.3.5 Stakeholder Analysis

Whether you are working on policy, a product, or company operations, there are always stakeholders. They range from direct users to people at the far end of supply chains or affected by ripple effects. Systemically, everyone is affected in the long run.

In this phase, you identify which stakeholders matter, what their needs appear to be, and how to involve them. This feeds the stakeholder involvement step in the Solution Phase.

The central question: who are your stakeholders?

Work toward a stakeholder map showing different stakeholders, their proximity to the challenge, their relationships to the subject and to each other, their influence, and (where possible) their needs and wishes.

Four levels of stakeholders

These levels help identify strategies per group. They do not denote importance:

Primary (closest, participating, 1-10). Clients, investors, residents, primary users or decision makers, team members.

Secondary (directly affected, 10-100). Customers, employees, primary suppliers, neighbors, local flora and fauna.

Tertiary (usually anonymous, 100+). All downstream and upstream value chain partners, regional residents, society at large, all people and living things, future generations.

The stakeholder mapping process itself is covered in detail in the method chapter (section 2, System Mapping).

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3.3.6 Systems Analysis

The systems analysis step takes all the intelligence gathered and runs it through the SiD framework as preparation for the Solution Phase. The goal is to produce system maps that serve as templates, inspiration, and accessible knowledge input for the SiD sessions. On complex projects, this may also include building tools, such as calculation spreadsheets to test business models during sessions.

Typical maps to prepare

• Context: stakeholder map showing primary through societal stakeholders
• Context: complete supply chain or life cycle map (for production systems)
• Context: energy and material flow map (can combine with life cycle map)
• Space: geographical maps of relevant locations at small, medium, and large scales
• Time: timelines showing historical development of relevant market or policy trends
• Time: for products and user-oriented systems, a usage timeline
• Network level: analysis map showing critical weaknesses and strengths of each relevant network parameter related to each ELSI category

Start by making a map of maps: decide which system maps you want during the SiD sessions, check whether the research data supports creating them, then build them. Print posters of each map for display at sessions, and prepare A3/tabloid versions for drawing on.

Takeaway

The Intelligence Phase is where the team builds its understanding of the system. Good intelligence does not mean more data. It means the right data, organized for insight, and prepared for collaborative use. ELSI provides the scanning framework that keeps the research broad enough to avoid blind spots.

Next: the Solution Phase, where all this knowledge converges in co-creation.